Is it $425 million, $800 million, or somewhere in between? That’s the debate currently raging online about just how much Sony’s upcoming “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” will make at the box-office this weekend.
A few days ago, online box-office analysts were suggesting massive numbers for the film – predictions seemingly based on pre-sales and online data. They suggest a massive $800 million worldwide debut with over $300 million of that domestically.
Such a debut would be kind of unprecedented and is being seen as ridiculously generous by some. For comparison, “Spider-Man: No Way Home” opened in 2021 to $260 million domestic and $600 million worldwide.
One key difference this time though is China, the film is hitting Chinese cinemas day-and-date, whereas ‘No Way Home’ wasn’t theatrically released there. Numbers already coming in suggest it could have a big impact with first day sales in the Middle Kingdom on Wednesday already estimated to be $37.4 million.
On the other hand, you have Sony Pictures and the trades suggesting an opening of just $425 million worldwide. That would still mark the second-biggest opening for Sony behind “Spider-Man: No Way Home” but more than a few are citing this as deliberately low-balling the numbers to allow for headlines about the film ‘beating projections’.
The final result is expected to be somewhere in between. “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” has begun screening in select territories and opens in the U.S. on Friday.
