Universal Pictures, Illumination and Nintendo are set to release “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” worldwide on Wednesday, April 1st, ahead of the Easter weekend, and already the film is looking to do huge business.
The sequel has appeared on early tracking and is currently headed for three-day debut of $145-160 million and a five-day (Wed-Sun) domestic weekend debut of at least $160-175 million – and those are conservative estimates, with the number likely to go much higher.
Tracking figures are presently ahead of the 2023 first film at the same point in time, and that movie ended up smashing its early projections for a three-day debut of $146.4 million and five-day debut of $204.6 million.
The same is likely to happen here, especially as survey figures in tracking peg the film with a better overall first-choice number than either “A Minecraft Movie” or live-action “Lilo & Stitch” did last year – films that opened to $162.8 million and $182.6 million debuts, respectively.
Unaided awareness that the film is coming out is also high – as high as the first film and “Lilo & Stitch”. It also has little in the way of competition as the Zendaya-Robert Pattinson rom-com “The Drama” is tracking for a $15-25 million debut the same day.
Prior to this, the only major release of the previous week is “They Will Kill You” which is targeting a $6-10 million debut. Next week sees “Project Hail Mary” opening to around a $70-85 million start and “Ready or Not 2: Here I Come” which is targeting a soft $6-10 million debut.
Sources: Box-Office Pro, Deadline
