James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” has begun its international rollout with the film set to debut domestically on Thursday night.
At present, the movie is tracking for a $90-105 million opening weekend domestically and a further $250-275 million overseas for a global start of $340-365 million.
IMAX and 3D screens are also expected to do big business with the title over the coming weeks, but the key won’t be the launch – rather, it’ll be what comes after.
The movies are famous for their longevity at the box office, titles doing good business for weeks after release. The first film opened to $77 million domestically and stayed at #1 for seven weeks, ultimately snagging $760 million domestically and $2.92 billion worldwide.
The second one had a stronger start with $134 million domestically and a global start of $445 million, but tapered off quicker to a $688 million domestic and $2.3 billion worldwide haul.
The 197-minute third film boasts a $400 million budget, so it absolutely needs to make at least $1 billion just to cover costs, which it will certainly do.
The question becomes whether it will reach that $2 billion mark. If it does, “Avatar” could become the first film franchise in history to have three instalments each earn over $2 billion, suggesting there’s still plenty of life in the franchise.
If it comes in under $2 billion, however, questions will obviously be raised about whether Disney would want to continue as the fourth and fifth films appear to be a package deal.
Cameron himself has given clear indications in interviews that he’s happy to move on from the franchise after this film if this doesn’t hit the numbers required, and reviews for the newest film are the softest of the three – so word of mouth may not help.
Others already smell blood in the water with multiple other films opening this week, including the Sydney Sweeney-led “The Housemaid”, which is getting good reviews and looks to get a $20-25 million domestic start – very good for a $35 million budget feature.
The kid-friendly, faith-based “David” is heading for a similar $20-25 million debut, while “The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants” is headed for fourth with $15-20 million.
Source: Variety
