There’s a lot we still don’t know about Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet,” with the biggest one being when it will actually arrive in cinemas.
The film has already been delayed twice due to surging coronavirus cases around much of the world and though still currently slated for an August 12th global start, that date seems unlikely at this point.
After all, a recent report at Indiewire indicates the film would need to gross $800 million worldwide in order to break even in cinemas which means most cinemas around the globe have to be not just functioning but also busy. Things are a long way from that point.
Outside the United States, where the coronavirus has been mostly contained in numerous countries, cinemas are more prepared for a return to normal. However Vulture reports that while Warners and Nolan have discussed the possibility of releasing the film internationally first, it was ultimately decided to wait for the United States to catch up with most of the rest of the world – waiting until case numbers are down.
The delay for a worldwide launch is seen as a gesture of support for exhibitors who have been hit hard and may be a bit of good news in a week when things have only gotten worse.
Cowen financial analyst Doug Creutz has offered a new outlook for the future of cinemas, telling THR that it’s likely many won’t be able to fully re-open until next year as opposed to previous estimates of social distancing requirements significantly lessening by late 2020.
In fact he says: “We have now extended that timeline out to at least mid-2021; the situation remains very fluid, and we do not rule out the possibility that the impact could last even longer… We now expect domestic theaters to be largely closed until mid-2021, in part because we don’t think studios will be interested in releasing their largest movies into a capacity-constrained footprint.”
If the forecast holds true and if cinemas aren’t able to open for a full year from now, it’s not clear how many will survive to the point of doing so. It also means streaming and PVOD launches for major films that previously wouldn’t dream of going that route could become viable – the studios have to make money to survive.
