The COVID-19 pandemic has likely forever shattered the 90-day theatrical exclusivity window according to a leading Wall Street analyst.
Robert Fishman of MoffetNathanson, in a report Monday, says studios look set to gain the upper hand in skirmishes with exhibition over windowing as trends during the COVID-19 pandemic extend into the future.
The report says unlike last time with failed attempts at PVOD or window changes, this time is different as all the major studios are likely to be more aggressive with strategies and as long as multiple studios push, it reduces exhibitors leverage as they simply can’t afford to boycott upcoming major releases.
Fishman believes the former standard “dark period” of 90 days between theatrical release and home video is too inefficient and one studios can no longer afford. Universal will likely lead the push forward for a new window, with Warner Bros. and other smaller studios quickly following.
It is expected additional windowing experiments from studios either bypassing the theatrical window or pressuring existing ones will continue well into next year. He adds: “It’s hard to see how mid-budget, non-tentpoles will be worth the cost and expense of traditional theatrical distribution.”
Even Disney, the lone studio fully committed to the theatrical window prior to the pandemic, he expects will continue to be more aggressive in shortening the gap between theatrical debut and Disney+ release as it has been since the crisis began.
Ultimately he expects the industry will come around to a common standard by next year with a $20-30 post theatrical release window around 30 days rather than 90.
Source: Deadline
