When the first major titles started going to streaming rather than cinemas last year, the most common criticism levelled by those on the ‘theatrical experience always’ side has been: “imagine how much it would’ve made had it gone theatrical”.
This year, that has been switched up a bit with a common variation of that, targeted at films debuting in cinemas and streaming simultaneously, being: “imagine how much it would’ve made had it gone exclusively theatrical.”
The argument felt a bit hollow when titles like “Godzilla vs. Kong” and “Mortal Kombat” proved strong moneymakers in cinemas and were hits on streaming according to third-party analysts. Same with a film like Disney’s “Raya and the Last Dragon” which has quietly been a consistent performer that has almost septupled its opening weekend haul domestically.
Now the argument is front-and-center again following the tepid $11.4 million debut of the musical “In the Heights”. Going into the weekend estimates had the film pegged at earning $20 million for the three-day start.
Reviews from both critics and audiences have been great, and a costly last-minute marketing push by Warners with a big emphasis on seeing the film in cinemas had industry insiders and exhibitors excited. But the numbers don’t lie. The film debuted in second place at nearly half of estimates and now fingers of blame are being pointed.
Right away the argument that a simultaneous HBO Max debut is responsible for cannibalising potential box-office sales has arisen in some corners. However Variety reports that the film was facing much larger obstacles including a lack of interest and familiarity with the property. Shawn Robbins, the chief analyst at Box Office Pro, says:
“It’s not really a box office vs. streaming problem. ‘In the Heights’ had a strong core fanbase, but it didn’t expand beyond that.”
Warner Bros. itself roundaboutly confirmed that with the president of domestic distribution Jeff Goldstein indicating to the Associated Press yesterday that a film’s performance on HBO Max is often a reflection of its box-office rather a drain on it – thus suggesting HBO Max debuts aren’t taking away ticket sales:
“Our experience, which is backed up on ‘In the Heights,’ is that if the movie hits a high level in theaters, it hits a high level on the service. If it hits a low level in theaters, it hits a low level on HBO Max. They’re really very comparable.”
Other factors aren’t helping the film. Indiewire says that the overall box-office haul this weekend for all films sits at 43% of what it was on the same weekend two years ago. In fact box-office has sat around that low-40 percentile mark over the last few weeks – even with the strong starts for “A Quiet Place Part II” and the third “The Conjuring”.
Then there’s the Friday to Saturday drop with ‘Heights’ losing 27% on its first to second-day haul. To give you an idea of how that compares to other musicals, disappointments like “Cats” and “Rent” fell 18% and 11% respectively.
That Variety report also says that ‘Heights’ boasts a costly $55 million production budget, a large marketing budget, and has to cover the cost of keeping creator Lin Manuel-Miranda and director Jon Chu happy following the decision to debut the movie simultaneously on HBO Max.
This suggests the film needs to gross in the $200 million range in order to be a financial success and has to do so without much help from overseas. Could it do it? It’s certainly possible. Movie musicals famously tend to have quiet openings but do consistent repeat business.
Fox’s “The Greatest Showman” famously bombed at the start with a $9 million opening weekend, but a combination of word of mouth and consistent weekly box-office performance turned the film around into a smash hit that pulled in $174 million domestically and $260 million worldwide. Hopefully ‘Heights’ will be able to change its tune in the coming weeks.
