Should the coronavirus pandemic disruption continue into May as expected, analysts have offered early estimates suggesting we will see a total loss of global box-office revenue of approximately $17 billion for 2020 according to a new THR feature.
Along with the downturn in ticket sales because of both necessary caution and public panic, the studios and exhibitors must also absorb the cost of pulling wide-release tentpoles off the schedule shortly before release, closing down production on hundreds of shows and films, and scrapping planned events like premieres and junkets.
So far the global box office has already taken a hit of at least $7 billion, with the remainder of March through May likely to see a further $10 billion gone. If the crisis goes past May, there may be no limit as to how much disruption it will have.
The delay of “No Time to Die” is said to have cost its studio $30-50 million, the delay of “A Quiet Place II” eight days out from release is costing around $30 million. No estimate for “Mulan” as yet, and with “F9” still two months out it will reportedly manage to escape without much in the way of losses.
The pausing on films like “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” and “The Little Mermaid” are said to be costing Disney around $300,000-$350,000 a day each and it is unclear any of the losses will be covered by insurance. The cancelling of the industry’s annual upfronts in April and May will take a toll on the TV networks as ad buyers typically spend over $6 billion during the May upfront period with that spending likely to swing down this year.
Then there’s the spending that reverberates into the local community with film and television production alone injecting $49 billion into local businesses per year.
On the exhibition side, all eyes are on Marvel’s “Black Widow” and “Trolls: World Tour” which have effectively become the last two major film releases left on the calendar between now and mid-late May. The fate of those two releases is still up in the air and if they were to shift, it’s thought cinemas would find it hard to justify keeping their doors open – especially in light of restrictions on public gatherings.
