Everyone has been weighing in with their thoughts on this year's ceremony, I guess its my turn now. Here's a look at the major award categories, what I personally think should win, and what I'm predicting will win for each of the major awards:
Best Film
At one time both the easiest and toughest category to really lock down this year. There does seem to be one clear favourite, but as 1998's win for "Shakespeare in Love" over "Saving Private Ryan" goes to show, there's no absolutes in this game. Both "Capote" and "Munich" already seem to be out of the running. "Good Night, and Good Luck" is a wild card, an extremely well-received film about a subject a lot of Academy voters are familiar with. Yet its odds of nabbing the big prize are practically nothing - it really has come down to a two-horse race between films populated by either gay cowboys or racists in Los Angeles and so far the men in chaps look pretty set.
In Brokeback's favour is that its won nearly twice as many awards (50+) as its nearest competitor "Capote" (30), and five times more than "Crash" (10). Amongst critics and guilds no other film has come even vaguely close to winning 'Best Film' as much as it has, and its winning of 'Best Film' at the likes of the PGA, DGA, Globes, etc. cement its place in the history books as one of the most consistently awarded films of any in a given season. Also, in a political year, it deals a hot topic issue with restraint and remains a practically unanimously well-received film. The same can't be said for "Crash" where as time has gone on, it has become much more divisive and is garnering a small but strongly negative backlash against its heavy-handed and manipulative approach to the racism issue - especially from residents of Los Angeles where many of the Academy voters are based.
Yet 'Brokeback' isn't a 100% lock either as last month's SAG awards were very much in favour of "Crash", a pointed fact as the majority of voters on the Academy are SAG members. "Crash" has been out many months longer than 'Brokeback' and despite its controversy, its still not considered as controversial as 'Brokeback' on a purely surface level. Lionsgate has been very strong with its Oscar campaign and sent out tens of thousands of screeners of the film to ensure Academy members considered it, and while 'Brokeback' screeners are around they certainly aren't anywhere near as prevalent. Finally, though its unfortunate to bring up, certain members of the Academy are notoriously conservative and either awarding or even admitting to see a gay romance film may have an impact.
Still, the tragic love story of the old West seems pretty set and if "Crash" does win, it'll easily be the biggest 'upset' story of the night no matter what else happens.
Who Should Win: "Brokeback Mountain" Who Will Probably Win: "Brokeback Mountain"
Best Actor All the nominees are deserving this year, in fact no choice can really go wrong as such. Great actors like Philip Seymour Hoffman, David Strathairn and Joaquin Phoenix deliver what many label their career best performances, whilst Terrence Howard strikes a bold tone with a break out role. Heath Ledger however is simply a revelation in a performance many thought he would never be capable of. Yet there's no two ways around it, Hoffman has this category sown up. His work in "Capote" has been the most consistent in terms of any award this season to the point that if he doesn't win, it'll easily be a real shock.
Who Should Win:
Heath Ledger ("Brokeback Mountain") or
Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote")
Who Will Probably Win:
Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote")
Best Actress
All good actresses in their own way, and I'm a big personal fan of any work of either Judi Dench or Felicity Huffman. Yet like P.S. Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon seems to have wrapped this one up. Much like Ledger's work, its a career-changing performance that'll shock you of how capable an actress she is and thus is fair that she's rewarded. Theron already got hers for a better performance a few years back, Dench does good (but not classic) roles like these frequently, and Knightley is simply too young and inexperienced. Huffman's her only real competitor, but "Transamerica" hasn't been the hit (both financially and critically) many were hoping.
Who Should Win:
Reese Witherspoon ("Walk the Line") or
Felicity Huffman ("Transamerica")
Who Will Probably Win:
Reese Witherspoon ("Walk the Line")
Best Director Aside from maybe 'Best Actor', this is the most locked up category with Ang Lee set to nab an Oscar for "Brokeback Mountain" no matter who wins Best Film. Paul Haggis and Bennett Miller are arguably seen as too new and have yet to earn their chops, similar with Clooney whose 'Good Night' is only his second film. As for Spielberg, well he already has two and "Munich" is certainly no "Schindler's List". Lee on the other hand has had this coming for many years and as we well know, a lot of what's awarded is for body of work as much as their nominated effort.
Who Should Win: Ang Lee ("Brokeback Mountain") Who Will Win: Ang Lee ("Brokeback Mountain")
Best Supporting Actor Normally one of the easiest to pick, the supporting actor category this year is a tough one as there so far hasn't been much in the way of a consistent winner. William Hurt's nom is a courtesy, the role far too small to come under consideration. Dillon and Gyllenhaal deliver their best work yet, but both so far have been more or less snubbed in the awards season with only one or two wins. Conventional thinking either sets this as a win for either the always reliable Paul Giamatti for being the best thing about "Cinderella Man", or George Clooney for a strong performance in the superb ensemble "Syriana". I'm giving my guess to George, as the man's nominated three times and of the three the competition is the least fierce here.
Who Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal ("Brokeback Mountain") Who Will Win: George Clooney ("Syriana")
Best Supporting Actress On the one hand Rachel Weisz has been winning the most awards for her stellar work in the acclaimed but surprisingly under-nominated "The Constant Gardener", but on the other newcomer Amy Adams delivers a career making turn in indie "Junebug" and despite its very quiet release, the academies and critics have been rewarding her strongly as well. One also can't forget the dark horse of Michelle Williams and her excellent work in 'Brokeback'.
Who Should Win:
Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener") or
Michelle Williams ("Brokeback Mountain")
Who Will Win: Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener")
Best Animated Film Hideo Miyazaki's "Spirited Away" deservedly nabbed itself an Oscar a few years back, but his "Howl's Moving Castle" isn't as magical as that masterpiece and probably won't. Similarly "The Corpse Bride" isn't Tim Burton at his best either, despite its nice reviews. "Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit" however charmed pretty much everyone who saw it, and we all know the Academy awarded the shorts it was based on. Thus this one seems pretty set.
Who Should Win: "Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit" Who Will Win: "Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit"
Best Foreign Language Film Despite hitting cinemas only this week, "Tsotsi" rides a wave of strong buzz that has already ensured its success in the category. Its only real strong competitor, the suicide bomber story "Paradise Now", could be deemed to controversial to undergo any real hard examination. "Sophie Scholl" is also getting a lot of last minute buzz as well.
Who Should Win: "Tsotsi" or "Paradise Now" Who Will Win: "Tsotsi"
Best Documentary Feature For the first time in a while, this has become a hard category to predict with at least three major potentials at first glance. Yet whilst "Murderball" was not only the best of the bunch (and one of last year's best films), and "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" is a slick and smart escapade, those "Penguins" got so much bank at the box-office and were well received enough that the the birds are a shoe-in this year. Who Should Win: "Murderball" Who Will Win: "March of the Penguins"
Best Original Screenplay This is most likely to be where "Crash" will get its recognition, and if it doesn't win this category then its chances for Best Film will likely improve. Despite superior work from practically all the other nominees, "Crash" has a strong share of supporters and has been winning this category quite well at various other award ceremonies.
Who Should Win:
Noah Baumbach ("The Squid and the Whale") or
George Clooney ("Good Night, and Good Luck")
Who Will Win: Paul Haggis ("Crash")
Best Adapted Screenplay A excellent batch this year with all of the scripts taking interesting spins on the material on which they were based, but without question this seems pretty much a lock for the Pullitzer prize winning adapters of 'Brokeback'. Its a great example of an award-winning work made even better on the big screen, and the writing duo have a lot of respect in the industry.
Who Should Win:
Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana ("Brokeback Mountain")
Who Will Win:
Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana ("Brokeback Mountain")
Best Original Score If the score category was all about one theme, "Brokeback Mountain" would easily take it. That signature piece of music immediately dredges up not only memory of the film but tears in many an eye when they hear it. Yet much of the rest of the film's incidental music isn't as strong, and faces tough competition from maestro John Williams who finally delivers one of his better works in years with "Memoirs of a Geisha". Too close to call really, but... what the hell, I'm going with what I want. Who Should Win: "Brokeback Mountain" Who Will Win: "Brokeback Mountain"
Best Original Song Nothing is more wholesome than big breasts and country twang, thus Dolly Parton's "Transamerica" theme song is bound to get the loving from the Academy. A last minute controversy with the song from "Crash" makes one wonder what will happen if it wins, and the legitimately most enjoyable song - the "Hustle and Flow" one (I guess "Whoop That Trick" was too edgy) will probably be seen as too 'hip-hoppy', I shit you not. Who Should Win: "Hard Out Here for a Pimp" ("Hustle & Flow") Who Will Win: "Travellin Thru'" ("Transamerica")
Best Art Direction Despite some decent efforts all round, the artistic oil painting like qualities of Geisha's visuals easily take the lead over fake CG jungles or English magical fantasy lands. Who Should Win: "Memoirs of a Geisha" Who Will Win: "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Best Costume Design "Charlie And The Chocolate Factory" had the funnest and most wild ones, "Pride & Prejudice" and "Walk The Line" accurately recreated their eras, but the exotic kimonos and daper down suits win this one. Who Should Win: "Memoirs of a Geisha" Who Will Win: "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Best Cinematography A lot of beautiful films this year, each of the five nominees establishing distinct looks and environs for their subject matter. No matter how you may feel about the content, there's no arguing that 'Geisha' is a beautifully shot film and has a strong chance. Still, it would be a special treat if those simply stunning landscape shots of the Rockies in 'Brokeback' took the prize. Who Should Win: "Brokeback Mountain" or "Memoirs of a Geisha" Who Will Win: "Brokeback Mountain"
Best Editing When that scene came along where they juxtaposed sex and a massacre, "Munich" lost its chance. "The Constant Gardener" was by far the best here - aptly swapping between past and present time storylines, and turning the rough and in your face style shooting quality into a coherent narrative. Yet the academy voters are likely to show the love again for "Crash" in this category. Who Should Win: "The Constant Gardener" Who Will Win: "Crash"
Best Make-Up This category became a joke a few years back when the only two nominees were "Frida" & "The Time Machine" even though great work in the likes of "Planet of the Apes" came out the same year but didn't qualify due to the insane amount of regulations. This year hands down, the Academy is going to feel the love for Disney's juggernaut new family franchise.
Who Should Win:
"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch & The Wardrobe"
Who Will Win:
"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch & The Wardrobe"
Best Sound Mixing A very well received classy biopic about an American music legend vs. three fantasy epics and a moderately-received novel adaptation. In the eyes of conservative voters, who do you think they'll pick.
Who Should Win: "Walk the Line" Who Will Win: "Walk the Line"
Best Sound Editing
'Geisha' looked pretty but didn't sound it entirely, thus its the aliens of "War of the Worlds" vs. the ape of "King Kong". The latter left a bigger impression with critics so it'll probably nab it.
Who Should Win: "War of the Worlds" or "King Kong" Who Will Win: "King Kong"
Best Visual Effects The effects of 'Narnia' weren't exactly the most ground breaking. The alien invasion of 'Worlds' was rushed and it looked it, thus the ability to emote with a CG ape is an achievement worthy of reward. Who Should Win: "King Kong" Who Will Win: "King Kong"
As for the short film categories, I have to admit I've seen none of them as I've never really been into the format. Based on buzz though, I'd guess "God Sleeps In Rwanda" for documentary short, "One Man Band" for animated short film, and "Six Shooter" for live action short film.
