Don’t expect the makers of “Terminator: Dark Fate” to rush forward with a follow-up as rival studios estimate the film could lose around $100 million theatrically by the time it finishes its run. The new feature debuted with a dismal $29 million in North America and $102 million overseas from 80% of global markets.
Considering the film cost $185 million to produce plus a further $80-100 million to market and distribute, the film would have to gross at least $450 million to break even – something it won’t do unless it has an extraordinarily strong hold in the coming weeks.
As such, estimates are now that it will hit a ceiling of a little over $200 million globally. In the U.S. alone, it’s estimated the film might not even pass $70 million. China won’t be its savior either with the film expected to struggle to reach $50 million in that territory.
TV and streaming licensing deals and home entertainment sales and rentals should help, as does the fact that the ‘damage’ is split four ways with Paramount, Skydance and Disney handling 30% of the budget each with China’s Tencent contributing the remaining cash.
The film at least is faring better with both critics and audiences, even though the B+ Cinemascore from audiences and a 69% average on Rotten Tomatoes suggest it’s not being widely embraced.