One frequent message left on comment boards regarding the stunning box-office success of “Jurassic World” has been that this is just the ‘warm-up act’ for J.J. Abrams’ “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” which opens in December.
This week, Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne has spoken about the film’s potential for success, with him raising his earlier box office forecast nearly 22% due to his growing optimism about overseas sales.
Swinburne says ‘Force Awakens’ is headed for $1.95 billion in global box office sales, trailing only “Avatar” and “Titanic” for the record, with $650 million of that to come from domestic ticket buyers. He expects it to be wildly profitable for Disney as well with around $1.03 billion set to be added directly to the studio’s bottom line.
His forecast suggests consumers will spend $3 billion a year on licensed toys, clothing, and merchandise (resulting in around $215 million in profit). On top of that there’s a further $350 million in home video revenues, $100 million from video games, and $75 million from global pay TV.
A lot though depends upon the international marketplace. Previous “Star Wars” films have seen overseas ticket sales around 1.2 times that of the domestic total, compare that to something like “Furious 7” where the difference is more like 3.3 times.